We have now had enough time in Le Tour to make some serious opinions known. Being lucky enough to actually know a few guys racing has some advantages and having ridden behind Andy Shleck for a few hours around Stellenbosch I understand how fluent the man is. There is a very cool competition running at Fellow #BOOM Custodian Marc Perel’s Tour Blog. Win some Oakley Livestrong shades.

Back to the action we go:

Here is my personal opinion: Bert (Contador) has been stronger over the first 10 days. Now before you start throwing inanimate objects at me, please read the rest of the article to understand. Andy has profited from being well placed but is not the stronger rider man on man. To recap:

Progolgue: Bert is 44 seconds up on Andy over 10km. Does NOT bode well for a final 52km TT, where the difference is likely to be around 2min over Andy, by Bert.

Stage 3: Andy places himself perfectly and gains 1:13 over Bert by riding Spartacus (Cancellara) wheel through the cobbles. Bert loses an extra 20seconds by puncturing with 1km to go where there are no cars. Best tactical move of the entire race by Andy and surprised Bert missed it. Had he not punctured it would have been 53seconds.

Stage 9: Andy attacks but gets roughly 2 seconds until Dirty (Sanchez) comes by and takes the gap to 10seconds. Andy profits from another rider again. Lucky boy.

So if you take the 20seconds off for the puncture and the 10seconds he gained by following someone else`s attack (theoretically) their total accumulated time difference is 11seconds. All that on the FLAT parts of the ride, where Andy out rode Bert on the COBBLES nogal. On the climbs there was NO difference and every attack was covered. One on one, Bert is up 44 seconds in a 10km time trial. He has spared his legs by attacking as little as possible through the Alps, saving his team for the Massiv Central which the riders now pass through to get to the Pyrenees, which is Bert`s homeland. Last year Bert made all his gaps in the Pyrenees, which came first in the 2009 Tour. The climbs are totally different to the Alps, where last year Andy was possibly stronger than Bert.

Realistically, I still believe Bert has a 1:15 advantage in terms of what Andy needs to be in the run for the title, all while getting through his least favorite mountains and the cobbles and only losing time on the cobbles. I can’t see the “Andy is the clear favorite” mentality just yet, but my opinion is just that, mine.

What we do know is that these two guys are evenly matched throughout the Alps, in the mountains. Nothing to separate them in Andy’s favorite mountains, where he was stronger than Bert last year.

Here is what I am thinking so far:

Bert will gain time in the Pyrenees. At some point he is going to give one of his big attacks and Andy will not respond. Andy can attack at 2km to go, Bert can do it from 5km out. That is a vital difference between them. Around 1min30 to 2min over Andy I feel is what Bert is good for, as history has proven. His team will be more fresh and possibly he will be more fresh. He seems to be looking forward to the Pyrenees, where the locals speak his language, where he is earthed. He will ride the crud out of Andy as much as he can so that in the last time trial, he will gain his 2min over Andy. Andy will this Tour have profited from having ridden on the wheel of the best cobble rider on planet earth more than he would have profited in the mountains. That is my prediction.

My prediction is that it will be closer than last year. 2min in it, maybe less overall. That is astonishing if you think about it. Signs of a cleaner sport, of the pressure it takes to be reigning champion. Their bikes are even identical. S-Works with SRAM Red, Zipp 202′s. The fact that there is only 1 time trial this year also means a closer race and is maybe the perfect Tour for Andy. Next year there may be 2 time trials and no cobbles, so there is a 5min advantage vs 2min already for Bert.

We are seeing a really tough Tour this year. More crashes than I have ever seen. It’s been up to 40deg Celsius out there. The first hour each day has been more crazy than what Phil Liggett & Co can remember in recent history. Reading some of the blogs of the guys who ride in the back is interesting. The domestiques will ride to the cars 5 or 6 times a day, to collect about 10kg of stuff, then have to sprint through the bunch (going at 50km/h) to get bottles and food to everyone, only to have to do it again every 30min or so. It’s an insane job and must kill the legs. They are really heroes in my opinion.

Two stand-outs yesterday. One was this guy…

He rode with a cracked elbow. 4800m vertical ascent over 150km with a cracked elbow. Have you ever hit your “funny” bone? Now imagine its cracked and you have to ride a bike over bumpy terrain. The guy is a legend for even attempting that.

The other was Jens Voigt. He paced Andy for as long as he could and when he went #BOOM it was spectacular. He went from riding 30km/h to 3km/h in 3 pedal strokes. He was gasping for air like a skydiving guppy over the Namib Desert and had, as Sherwin would say “had a very deep dig into the pain suitcase”.

Viva le Tour. It is far from over…

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so the weekend looms just ahead of us now. in merely a few hours time, you will in all likelihood have around 50 hours to what you want, and how you want to do it.

I am running leg 1 in the Houtbay Trail Challenge tomorrow for team Mens Health, hoping to defend a record they set last year. I hope to not let them down and hope to follow some top guys on the first leg. Puma have come to the party with some magic Usain Bolt gear for us too. That’s about 20seconds right there. I am looking forward to powering up the hill at a conservative effort. Thank goodness for a Suunto HRM and a Suunto Footpod to help make the journey that much easier and easier to judge on effort as well. I am so lucky when it comes to sponsors.

Then in the afternoon, I am going to veg out on the couch and watch the tour guys go up this climb…

for Capetonians, relatively speaking, its from the waterfront, to the top of Table Mountain, only twice as HIGH, in 22km.

for the Jozi folks, its Jozi to Midrand, and roughly as high as the clouds. Not the smog, the clouds. Yes, look a little higher. well done.

for Durbanites…. never mind.

If you want to see why the guys go so fast up the climb, apparently they let a rabbit loose up the climb about 30min before they get there. it looks like this (NOTE: This picture is not safe for work, or kids). K – enough of that.

Seriously though, 1700m odd climbing in 22km is a seriaaaaaas effort. there is so much to be decided on there.

After this excitement, where a few Jack Black Beers will undoubtedly flow, we are off to the land of the white loafer for The Housemate’s birthday. Copious amounts of Kleinhoekkloof Wines will be consumed, in honor of him being such a legend.

I do aim to ride on Sunday morning, as the weather will be great, I just know it. Seriously – how power has this weather been in Slaapstad lately? best kept secret of Cape Town is winter. Now that I am training for our Epic Challenge, I need to get the long rides in, sooner than later. Gotta loose some weight, gain some power, and rock the house.

If you haven’t got a challenge in your life right now, get one. Take the leap. Employ yourself and make sure you are reaching beyond what you think you can do, so that you can learn that there are no limits.

and remember to smile, while you are at it.

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TT Bike Fit have a great article on the TDF bike tech. I just had to put it in after the team time trial yesterday. I loved watching how awesome the teams looked, all aero and moving SO SO SO fast in unison.

There are some clearly converging trends in aero bike design that were visible to the trained bike-nerd eye on Saturday:

Bayonet-style extended head tubes: Pioneered a few years ago by Felt, we now have extreme versions on the Giant which debuted a year ago, along with the Specialized Shiv and the Trek Speed Concept. The new Scott achieves a similar end by using a fixed but extended head tube. While these designs may improve front end stiffness, the main purpose is likely to increase the airfoil chord length of the head tube, turning it into a broad 8-1 or similar airfoil shape. They also give the ability to blend the front end more smoothly into the front wheel/fork, and in some cases facilitate hiding the front brake and cable. Note that the Look 596 (I didn’t see any of these on the TDF coverage- but they may have been there) also sports it’s own version of this design.

1. The Original Bayonet (Felt) with a modified stem
2. The Giant took the bayonet design to the next level
3. The Giant TT took the bayonet design to the next level – but otherwise looks like a P3 knockoff
4. The Shiv sports a large “nose cone” with integrated bars and brakes

Hidden brakes and cables: Also pioneered by Felt, the behind-the-BB under-inside-over -chainstays rear brake position is becoming standard. The Giant (at least some examples), Trek, Scott, Specialized (Shiv and Transition), and Cervelo P4 all use this design to clean up the trailing edge of their frames. Front brake placement however is still evolving. Some designs mount the brake behind the fork (Giant, Fuji), but the latest designs are embedding them along with their cables within the fork or head tube extension (Trek, Shiv). Notably absent from any front brake innovations are Cervelo (the P4 uses a conventional setup) and Scott.

Fared rear wheel: Pioneered by Cervelo on the P3, most new TT frames now blend the rear wheel tightly into the seat tube.

Low seat stays: Pioneered by Kestrel and QRoo some 20 years ago (and maybe by others even earlier). Seat stays on most of these frames join the seat tube far lower than they would on a standard road design. While this can stiffen up the rear end, it also helps keep the trailing edge clean and narrow, turning the upper half of the trailing edge into a shape similar to a sleek airplane rudder.

Integrated front ends: The new bayonet designs are allowing stemless front end setups with bars being mounted directly on top of the “nose cones”. Trek uses a modified version with a custom stem that blends tightly into the front end faring. While some designers have used this setup to eliminate dead space that occurs behind a standard stem/steerer tube by blending the bars evenly into the top tube, Trek diverges here also, setting the top tube below the bars but providing a smooth transition via the custom stem.

I think you have to give some props to Felt here, as some of these convergent design features were pioneered by Felt a few years ago: Bayonet fork and hidden rear brake. I didn’t notice any major changes to their frames as ridden by Team Garmin though. They did have a modified stem attachment on at least some frames for a smoother shape and lower position.

Another thing that is quickly becoming clear: Pro-Tour riders are demanding different frames than those sold to the mass tri market. Scott’s manager mentioned this potential trend at the Tour of CA, after Team Columbia refused to ride the Plasma 2 in the TT’s. When 1-2 secs over 60 minutes can be crucial, it is no surprise that these guys expect no-holds-barred aero designs that don’t necessarily lend themselves well to the tri market. Many of these riders use massive amounts of front end drop that would be simply unachievable on some “tri frames”. On the flip side, such designs would have limited mass-market appeal. They also have to conform to increasingly draconian UCI rules – tri bikes don’t. Finally, many of these super-aero innovations will be very difficult to build up and maintain, and will be even more difficult (and expensive) to adapt to a wide range of rider sizes and fits due to the broad use of custom parts. And let’s face it, a pro-tour TT and a triathlon bike leg have little in common other than the requirement for some amount of aerodynamic efficiency and aero-position friendliness. With all the other variables in a triathlon you have to admit that splitting these ‘aero hairs” on mass market tri bikes is probably not worth the hassle and expense.

Specialized has made it clear that their Shiv will be sold to the public next Spring, but in a “take it or leave it” manner. The frame will have one stack height, and a few different reaches (likely through swapping out the front end faring attachment in some manner). Essentially, it will be “size M” with a few different “stem lengths” available. If you fit on it and have what is likely to be big bucks, then have at it. If not, too bad. Specialized makes no apologies: the Pro-Tour riders are close enough in size and fit that most will fit on this one-size frame. To compensate the rest of us, they plan to offer 3 more sizes of the Transition – a great idea since the existing frame range is quite narrow fit-wise.

There are also clear signs that the Giant and the Trek will also make it to market in some form (the Trek in 2011). My guess is they will follow Specialized’s lead and offer them on a limited basis. The UCI is having a major influence here, as new rules now state that all race bikes must be “currently marketed” or at least “marketable”. This recalls the ‘homologation specials” in the auto racing world. For example, BMW sold a handful of it’s M1 supercars in street-legal form in the early 80s and E30 M3’s later in the decade so that they could race these designs in touring events.

A few other observations:

The new Trek sports a “Kamm” airfoil design with a squared-off trailing edge, a design used effectively in the auto racing world. This allows a narrower section (i.e. 3-1 fitting the UCI rules) to mimic a broader and more efficient 8-1 airfoil section. If the shape is right, the air flow doesn’t “notice” the squared-off tail and rejoins as if the the tube was a true 8-1 airfoil. Apparently this design works well even in 15 degree yaw situations (thanks to James Huang from cyclingnews.com for a great preview of this frame). I suspect it rapidly stalls at steeper angles of attack, hence you wouldn’t find this airfoil on aircraft. Look for a lot more of this Kamm design on Pro Tour TT bikes if it works as advertised, as it seems to be a way around the UCI’s 3:1 aspect ratio limit.

We finally saw P4’s under the Cervelo Test Team riders. However, at least Sastre didn’t use the P4’s integrated water bottle, and instead had an Arundel-type bottle (made by Elite) mounted in the space. As I have guessed in the past, the UCI “may” not look kindly on the integrated bottle according to a Cervelo Team engineer. Cervelo now stands out as having their Pro-Tour guys on their mass-market frame. Will this be the last Tour without a special Cervelo Pro-Tour TT frame?

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Very soon…

its tour time… viva Le Tour

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This time of the year is always exciting to me. The Tour de France comes around and there are a couple assumptions to be made from this:

1. 4-5pm most afternoons are taken to spend time watching TV
2. There will be doping positives. Its part of the cleaning process, and as long as there is free will, there will be stupid ego`s out there.
3. New equipment to see that we might get next year!
4. Real bravery and real pain for our pleasure.

If you want more excellent cycling reading, I recommend you go to Belgium Knee Warmers as he writes really really damn well about the life.

So far the tour has been a real pleasure to watch, despite the idiots who ruin it for their entire team. How you as an individual with a ego problem, take personal control of the finances of the bus drivers, the admin staff, your soigneur, your team mates, management and indeed, the families of all those people, by doping, is beyond me. If you get caught, all those people are affected. I dont care about you, I care about what you are doing to all those people who trust you and depend on your to do the right thing, but yet, you opt to train less, eat worse, ruin the dreams of your fans, and indeed, remove people from the sport of cycling.

The GC has been incredible, and the speeds at times stupid. Anyone see the speeding camera go off yesterday as Fabian Cancellara was clocking 70km/h on the flat leading into the last climb? I saw it. I giggled like a schoolgirl because thats beyond my comprehension. and Jens Voigt? I love this guy… look at him here…

Isnt it just beautiful? He is a domestique this year and saving his energy, as a flat stage rider, to drop most of the peleton sans 10-12 guys, on the climbs. And to quote him…….

“On the Tourmalet Volodymir Gustov and I set a hard tempo. That worked out pretty nice since I actually managed to drop Valverde and Cunego,” Voigt said proudly. “To be honest, for a moment I felt like Eddy Merckx. It gives you a huge boost in motivation and morale; you just want to go faster and faster.”

mnandi.

Want to know how steep the climbs are:

That steep.

Now, my favorite piece of new equipment shown at the Tour is the new Giant TT bike. the back half is pure Cervelo P3c, and the front half is just incredible. The front impact is what impresses me most. Notice the lack of cables in the air and around the head tube, which is first point of contact. Well done Giant. I am in love. I doubt this will make it to production, but I have to find one, even if I have to rob a team bus somewhere.

Today is a rest day, but tuesday and wednesday are going to be epic carnage and alot will be left out on the open roads of the Alps.

Enjoy……

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